![]() Russia is the world’s 3rd oil producer, the 2 nd natural gas producer and among the top 5 producers of steel, nickel and aluminum. The conflict threatens to squeeze energy and commodities markets further Together with a complete cut of Russian natural gas supply, this could cost at least 4 points of GDP, thereby leading EU GDP growth close to zero – more probably in negative territory – in 2022. European economies are most at risk: at the time of writing, Coface estimates at least 1.5 percentage point of additional inflation in 2022, while GDP growth could be lowered by 1 percentage point. ![]() Coface forecasts a deep recession of 7.5% for the Russian economy in 2022 and downgraded Russia’s risk assessment to D (very high).Certain sectors such as automotive, transport or chemicals are more likely to suffer.Higher commodity prices intensify the threat of long-lasting high inflation which increases the risks of stagflation and social unrest. ![]() ![]() Since our last publication, the world has shifted, so have the risks. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered turmoil in the financial markets, and drastically increased uncertainty about the recovery of the global economy. ![]()
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